Spanish election.

[Brandyboy]

It looks like the new government is going to be difficult to form.

Sanchez did better than expected but not good enough and I'm not really surprised at the results.

https://english.elpais.com/spain/2023-0 ... -open.html

[Adey]

I'm just very glad that VOX got it's arse kicked and lost 19 seats.

[Rspltd]

It will take a lot of time. I think PSOE will eventually form the government with the needed 176 seats.

Pp+VOX=169
PSOE+sumar=153

Both need additional coalition members.

ERC and Junts, Catalan pro-independence each have 7 will not go with pp. They will play hardball with psoe and will eventually join them.

Bildu and Pnv are Basque parties and have supported Sánchez in the past have 11 combined.

This would bring psoe coalition to 178.

There has to be a pardon for Puidgemont and a referendum in Catalonia. This is the only way that POSE will get Junts and without them he can't get a majority. However the granting of a referendum will be complicated and won't happen for at least 18 months. Puigemont's pardon will be legally difficult and controversial. In short Spain will rip itself apart. Feijóo is equally ******ed. No one is going to allow him to form a government if he doesn't get 176 and it is actually impossible for him given that he no longer has ciudadanos and he has totally hitched his party to vox in the local government. The most likely upshot is the rest of the year you won't have a working government.

[Bee]

It looks like it will be a hodgepodge of all kinds of left wing from moderate to extreme similar to the outgoing Government. I wouldn't like to be trying to keep their demands and expectations in check. It will take a very astute and patient negotiator. I agree that Puigdemont is going to get his pardon but his influence is greatly diminished in his absence. Interesting times ahead. It appears the rules are that a government must be formed within 2 months of the first attempt at a government formation vote. It took 2 months in 2019 to attempt a first formation. Will it be dragged out until Spain's 6 months Presidency of the EU ends?

Bee

[Bee]

An interesting bit here from Reuters on Junts and Puigdemont. Even if they get an independence vote it looks like it won't be carried.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sp ... 023-07-24/

Bee

[Carl]

Some Spanish political guru on TV suggested that we can expect another election at Christmas. Not sure that would necessarily surprise the Spanish, having had to go through 2 elections in 2019.

[Bee]

Isn't that the definition of madness!! Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

Bee